BioRxiv Pre-Prints

3. Fox SJ, SE Bellan, TA Perkins, MA Johansson, LA Meyers, Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations (2018). bioRxiv. (preprint)

2. Bellan SE, RM Eggo, P-S Gsell, AJ Kucharski, NE Dean, R Donahue, M Zook, F Odhiambo, IM Longini, M Brisson, BE Mahon, AM Henao-Restrepo (2018). Guiding Vaccine Efficacy Trial Design During Public Health Emergencies: An interactive web-based decision support tool. bioRxiv. (preprint)

1. Bellan SE, Pulliam, JRC, Van Der Graaf R, Fox SJ, Dushoff J, Meyers (2017). Quantifying ethical tradeoffs for vaccine efficacy trials during severe epidemics. bioRxiv. (preprint)

Peer-Reviewed Publications 

(PDFs here are intended for single copy, research use only, to comply with copyright regulations) 

24. Bellan SE, Champredon D, Dushoff J, Meyers LA (in press). Couple serostatus patterns in sub-Saharan Africa illuminate the relative roles of transmission rates and sexual network characteristics in HIV epidemiology Scientific Reports(preprint PDF)

23. Hitchings MDT, Lipsitch M, Bellan SE (2018). Competing effects of indirect protection and clustering on the power of cluster-randomized controlled vaccine trials. American Journal of Epidemiology. (preprint PDF)

22. Kahn R, Hitchings M, Bellan SE, Lipsitch M (2018). Impact of stochastically generated heterogeneity in hazard rates on individually randomized vaccine efficacy trials. Clinical Trials. (journal PDF)

21. Halloran ME, Auranen K, Baird S, Basta NE, Bellan SE et al. (2017). Simulations for Designing and Interpreting Intervention Trials in Infectious Diseases. BMC Medicine. (PDF)

20. Borchering RK, Bellan SE, Flynn JM, Pulliam JRC, McKinley S (2017). Resource-driven encounters among consumers and implications for the spread of infectious disease. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. (PDF)

19. Shen M, Xiao Y, Rong L, Meyers LA, Bellan SE (2017). Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. (postprint PDF, journal PDF) (Appendix)

18. Castro LA, Fox SJ, Chen X, Liu K, Bellan SE, Dimitrov NB, Galvani AP, and LA Meyers (2017). Assessing real-time Zika risk in the United States. BMC Infectious Diseases. (PDF)

17. Means, AR, K Risher, EL Ujeneza, I Maposa, J Nondi and SE Bellan (2016). Impact of Age and Sex on CD4+ Cell Count Trajectories Following Treatment Initiation: An Analysis of the Tanzanian HIV Treatment Database. PLOS ONE. (PDF)

16. Sempa, JB, J Dushoff, MJ Daniels, B Castelnuovo, AN Kiragga, M Nieuwoudt, and SE Bellan (2016). Reevaluating Cumulative HIV-1 Viral Load as a Prognostic Predictor: Predicting Opportunistic Infection Incidence and Mortality in a Ugandan Cohort. American Journal of Epidemiology. (PDF) (Appendix)

15. Champredon, D, SE Bellan, W Delva, S Hunt, C Shi, M Smieja and J Dushoff (2015). The effect of sexually transmitted co-infections on HIV viral load amongst individuals on antiretroviral therapy: A systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Infectious Diseases. (PDF)

14. Bellan, SE, JRC Pulliam, CAB Pearson, DChampredon, SJ Fox, L Skrip, AP Galvani, M Gambhir, BA Lopman, TC Porco, LA Meyers, J Dushoff (2015). The statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: A simulation study of trial design and analysis. Lancet Infectious Diseases. (PDF) (Appendix) (R Code)

13. Bellan, SE, J Dushoff, AP Galvani, LA Meyers (2015). Re-assessment of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity: adjusting for biases with simulated cohorts. PLOS Medicine. (PDF) (Appendix) (R Code) (MIDAS 2015 Presentation Slides)

12. Bellan, SE, JRCP Pulliam, J Dushoff, LA Meyers (2014). Ebola control: effect of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity. Lancet. (PDF)(Appendix) (Presentation Slides) (R Code)

11. Cizauskas CA, SE Bellan, WC Turner, WM Getz (2014). Frequent and seasonally variable sublethal anthrax infections are accompanied by short-lived immunity in herbivores in an anthrax endemic system. Journal of Animal Ecology. (PDF)

10. Terzi B, PCB Turnbull, SE Bellan, W Beyer (2014). Failure of Sterne- and Pasteur-like strains of Bacillus anthracis to replicate and survive in the urban bluebottle blow fly Calliphora vicina under laboratory conditions. PLOS ONE. (PDF)

9. Champredon D, SE Bellan, J Dushoff (2013). HIV sexual transmission is predominantly driven by single individuals rather than discordant couples: a model-based approach. PLOS ONE. (PDF)

8. Bellan, SE, PCB Turnbull, W Beyer, WM Getz (2013). Effects of experimental exclusion of scavengers from anthrax-infected herbivore carcasses on Bacillus anthracis sporulation, survival and distribution. Applied and Environmental Microbiology. (PDF)

7. Bellan, SE, KJ Fiorella, DY Melesse, WM Getz, BG Williams, J Dushoff (2013). Extra-couple HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa: a mathematical modelling study of survey data. Lancet. (PDF) (R Code)

6. Bellan, SE, O Gimenez, R Choquet, WM Getz (2013). Hierarchical Distance Sampling Approach to Estimating Mortality Rates from Opportunistic Carcass Surveillance Data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. (PDF) (R Code)(camera trap video of jackals, hyenas, vultures feeding on a zebra dead of anthrax)

5. Bellan, SE, JRC Pulliam, JC Scott, J Dushoff and the MMED Organizing Committee (2012). How to make epidemiological training infectious. PLOS Biology. (PDF)

4. Bellan, SE, CA Cizauskas, J Miyen, K Ebersohn, KC Prager, CT Sabeta, M van Vuren, WM Getz (2012). Black-backed jackal exposure to rabies virus, canine distemper virus, and Bacillus anthracis in Etosha National Park, Namibia. Journal of Wildlife Diseases. (PDF)

3. Beyer, W, SE Bellan, G Eberle, HH Ganz, WM Getz, R Haumacher, KA Hilss, W Kilian, J Lazak, PCB Turnbull, WC Turner (2012). Distribution and molecular evolution of Bacillus anthracis genotypes in Namibia. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. (PDF)

2. Tambling, CT, SD Laurence, SE Bellan, EZ Cameron, JT du Toit, WM Getz (2011). Estimating carnivoran diets using a combination of carcass observations and scats from GPS clusters. Journal of Zoology. (PDF)

1. Bellan, SE (2010). The importance of age dependent mortality and the extrinsic incubation period in models of mosquito-borne disease transmission and control. PLOS ONE. (PDF)


3. Pulliam JRC, SE Bellan, M Gambhir, LA Meyers, J Dushoff (2015). Evaluating Ebola vaccine trials: insights from simulation. Lancet Infectious Diseases. (PDF)

2. Bellan SE, JRCP Pulliam, J Dushoff, LA Meyers (2014). Ebola Vaccine Trials: The Ethical Mandate for a Therapeutic Safety Net. BMJ. (PDF)

1. Rivers, C, K Alexander, SE Bellan, S del Valle, JM Drake, JNS Eisenberg, et al (2014). Ebola: models do more than forecast. Nature. (PDF)


Bellan, SE (2011). Counting wildlife carcasses: Anthrax surveillance in Etosha National Park, Namibia. South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Quarterly (3).

Bellan, SE, JRC Pulliam, J Hargrove, B Williams, F Roberts, J Dushoff (2010). Building Capacity for Meaningful Epidemiological Modeling. South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Quarterly (2).

Pulliam, JRC, SE Bellan, J Hargrove, B Williams, F Roberts, J Dushoff (2010). Building Capacity for Meaningful Modeling: A first step. Society for Mathematical Biology Newsletter 23(1): 6-7.

Pulliam, JRC, SE Bellan, J Hargrove, B Williams, F Roberts, J Dushoff (2010). Training clinic builds capacity for meaningful modeling in Africa. SIAM News 43(1).